Checking in on Trump Trades - November Global Macro Trading Call [video + AI summary]

• Speakers: Tian Yang (Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Chief Markets Economist)
• Trump trades looking tired: The Trump trades of higher dollar, higher rates, and higher equities have largely played out, with more clarity on policy needed to extend these moves in the short run. Tax cuts and deregulation under the new administration seem likely priorities and support a reflationary outlook for early 2025. The structural backdrop favors a stronger dollar and higher equities. (See our report on Trump 2.0 here.)
• Relative value plays in FX: UK assets show promise due to pension reforms and improving growth so we still like selling EURGBP rallies. Fading the recession risk in Canada points to a stronger CAD against CHF. Some cross-rates like AUDNZD offer tactical mean-reversion opportunities.
• Buying dips on Chinese equities and USDCNH: Amid risks of U.S. trade policy under Trump, we still see more upside in Chinese equities and think a weaker renminbi will again be the main release value for trade tensions.

See our Top Global Macro Ideas dashboard for more details.