Past Trades

Trade (link to first report)	Report Ref Date	Original Thesis	Worked?
Short USDZAR	25-Mar-25 25-Nov-24	25-Mar-25: EM update: sticking with Indian equities, long MXN and ZAR 25-Nov-24: Cyclically, when gold outperforms oil, that has usually been a harbinger of a stronger rand. Our longer-term FX Edge models still favour a weaker USD vs the rand, while South Africa’s terms of trade have improved even as the NEER remains weak.	Half/Half (8-May-25): Bad initial entry point, but retained conviction during market stress. See more details in our related Note.
Long China equities	9-Apr-25	The odds now favor China doing much more aggressive domestic easing and genuinely pursuing reforms. China equities would benefit from a fiscal bazooka.	Yes (28-Apr-25): We are taking profits amid some optimism of US-China de-escalation
Long Industrial Metal equities	07-Jan-25	Weakness in industrial metals is consistent with past recessions, which is too pessimistic based on our recession models and our commodity supply-demand model. The benign cyclical backdrop aligns with our tactical outlook score.	No (28-Apr-25): This trade was an expression of our optimism for an industrial/manufacturing rebound in the US following Inauguration Day, which never materialized given the Trump administration's emphasis on tariff policy.
Short USDMXN	03-Sep-24	USDMXN LPPL Bubble Climax sell signal, while FX edge models also still favor MXN to keep appreciating. Target/when to selling rolling take-profit: USDMXN at 19 (base case post-LPPL climax bubble)	Yes (28-Apr-25): We highlighted a few “sell the rip” opportunities when USDMXN sold off above 21 on the back of US policy headlines (25-Mar-25, 20-Nov-25), while positive carry has bolstered total returns.
Long EURCHF / Short CHFJPY	15-Apr-25	The CHF jumps out at present as a depreciation candidate, having surged during the risk-off market action.	Yes (28-Apr-25): CHF reversed its strength against both EUR and JPY
SONIA Sep 25/26 Spreads	10-Jan-25	The Bank of England is stuck as the UK is facing upside inflation surprises and negative economic surprises, the most stagflationary country in the G10. This means less BoE cuts in the next 6-9 months, forcing cuts further into the future, which is not priced in the SONIA curve.	Yes (25-Apr-25): The UK's stagflationary outlook meant that additional cuts were priced in for late 2025/early 2025. Now there are more signs of growth downside, while inflation risks are peaking.
Long EURPLN	20-Feb-25	PLN looks stretched amid growing macro risks We see downside risks to growth as leading indicators have rolled over and fiscal deficits have limited room to expand. The rally in the zloty offers an attractive entry point to go long EURPLN to express this view.	Yes (7-Apr-25): Trade benefited from risk-off and PLN. Use Trump Pivot to reduce number of positions.
Long USDCNH	03-Apr-25	Long USDCNH on haphazard Liberation Day tariffs; The PBOC has been leaking FX reserves over the past few months and is now faced with a menu of terrible options. The overnight Yuan fixing was surprisingly restrained, but given the moribund Chinese economy, the easiest response for the PBOC/Chinese authorities would be to devalue.	Yes (7-Apr-25): Anticipated the post-Liberation Day deval speculation, but with Trump Pivot deval likely hurts China more than US.
Long USDJPY	20-Mar-25	Acting on our “buy the dip” plan in USDJPY; the fall in US yields has probably run its course and our tactical models suggest upside in USDJPY from here.	No (7-Apr-25): Liberation Day risk-Off. Take advantage of Trump Pivot to reduce number of positions. Turn more structurally bearish on USD.
Long NZDJPY	24-Jan-25	Growing evidence that New Zealand's economy is coming out of recession mean that NZD can rally as STIR markets reprice and extreme short positioning normalizes.	No (21-Mar-25): Give up on NZ growth upside Our leading indicators correctly anticipated that New Zealand would recover from recession, but the currency has been weighed down by macro factors.
Long GBPCHF	18-Dec-24	At-target inflation weakens the case for more cuts from the BoE. GBP stands to benefit from STIR markets pricing in a more hawkish BoE in the near term.	Half/Half (27-Feb-25): Take profit on GBPCHF The backdrop of sticky inflation and mounting downside growth risks in the UK is not a good set up for our long GBPCHF. We are taking profit on the pair, which has round-tripped, only picking up the carry.
Long China equities (FXI)	30-Jan-25 20-Nov-24 24-Sep-24	30-Jan-25: China tech: still bullish and highlighting single names 20-Nov-24: Tactical buys on HSI/HSCEI + first hint of less bad data 24-Sep-24: Tradeable bazooka, not yet a real bazooka. The loud and attention-grabbing nature of the PBOC policy surprise hints that the senior levels of the Chinese government have likely recognized the urgency of the need to act. We think this is a tradeable equity rally worth chasing over the next 1-3 months.	Yes (26-Feb-25): Take profit on China equity longs as risk-reward deteriorates Yes (02-Oct-24): China hit the level Take profits and lock in, cut 75% of the long, cumulative flows back to mid-2021 level
Long USDCNH	08-Nov-24 26-Sep-24 03-Sep-24 16-May-24 01-Feb-24	08-Nov-24: Reading the China tea leaves => stick with long USDCNH 26-Sep-24: On back of China tradeable bazooka, call-flies look attractive on USDCNH. e.g. 6m 7.10/7.30/7.60 costs 4 pips. 03-Sep-24: China macro still terrible, CNH depreciation pressures remain 16-May-24: Handicapping China Deval Risks Most likely path remains for Chinese authorities to slowly and quietly allow the RMB to depreciate over time, avoiding big moves that could exacerbate political tensions or capital flight. 01-Feb-24: Further easing by the PBOC into an economy that is still lacking in animal spirits is a recipe for more excess liquidity => downside pressure to CNH	Yes (15-Jan-25): Take profit on USDCNH
Short DAX	17-Dec-24	The current DAX rally seems too optimistic given the relatively poor message from our growth leading indicators and a lack of fiscal stimulus room in Europe.	No (08-Jan-25): stopped out for flat. Meant to be tactical trade, but resilient to yield spike. Move on.
Long US Homebuilders	01-Nov-23	30-Oct-24: US Homebuilders: tactical, cyclical, and structural alignment 01-Apr-24: Tactical trim, but thesis remains 01-Nov-23: At key VWAP support levels, still capital scarce	Yes (08-Jan-25): long term equity position. Still like structural thesis, but we are concerned about inflation settling above target, resulting in a higher for longer scare. Wait for better entry point.
Long Brazil equities	21-Mar-24	Growth leading indicators rebounding, BCB autopilot turned off, equities now better play on growth rebound	No (08-Jan-25): we still like long Brazil equities as core theme, but the timing has been pushed back waiting for inflation pressures to diminish. Turned into Asset Allocation theme.
Australia 2s10s flatteners	15-Dec-23	RBA the hawkish outlier, inflation is demand driven, strong housing market	Yes (18-Dec-24): extremely steep forwards did not realize, but also not as profitable as anticipated as the market resisted economic data catalysts
Sell rallies on EURGBP	7-Nov-24	Trump sweep unambiguously bad for EURUSD (link) and fits our USD stronger for longer thesis on Trump sweep (link). Still expect GBP to be relative outlier in G10 (link). Given the sell-off already, easiest expression would be to sell rallies.	Yes (18-Dec-24): thesis still valid, but trade expression refined to long GBPCHF
Long CADCHF	21-Oct-24	The Canada recession story is getting stale and there are some signs the worst may be over. Despite surge in USDCAD, CAD breadth against the rest of the G10 has been stable. We like a long CAD vs short CHF trade to play for a less bad Canadian growth outlook.	Half/Half (18-Dec-24): thesis still valid, but trade expression refined to long GBPCHF
Short AUDNZD	25-Nov-24	Improving NZ growth outlook + seasonality favors short AUD vs long NZD ahead of RBNZ	Yes (9-Dec-24): Touched 200dma while Tactical Outlook is turning positive. Take profits.
Long GBPUSD	21-Oct-24	1-Nov-24: Exposed to Trump sweep (FX: Trump sweep = US dollar stronger for longer) 21-Oct-24: We see upside risks to UK growth, such as falling redundancy announcements while the RICS buyer enquiries have been improving relative to sales. Our longer-term FX edge models still favor long GBP, and latest sell-off creates a buy-the-dip opportunity.	No (7-Nov-24): Trump sweep fits our USD stronger for longer thesis. Abandon the short USD leg of this trade. Preserve the long GBP leg by going short EURGBP.
Short EURAUD	19-Jul-24	Replaces long AUDCAD. Our preferred long AUD expression is now short EURAUD. The Australian macro story has NOT changed with the RBA the most hawkish G10 central bank.	Yes (7-Nov-24): Trump sweep unambiguously bad for EURUSD. Maintain short EUR expression with short EURGBP.
Long USDCHF	23-Sep-24	The recent poor performance of EURCHF is linked to the USDJPY unwind hurting carry currencies like CHF. Shorting CHF makes most sense when the consensus is bullish on CHF, but when there is minimal inflation risks. Target/when to selling rolling take-profit: USDCHF at 0.88 (base case post-LPPL climax bubble)	Yes (21-Oct-24): Thesis was right and is still valid as of writing. Swapped for long CADCHF to maintain our bearish CHF view while playing for a less bad Canadian growth outlook.
Short SOFR Jun 25 (SFRM5) (Yields higher)	01-Aug-24	STIR markets are pricing 6+ Fed cuts to June 2025, which implies almost imminent recession. Our indicators suggest US growth is sideways, not falling off a cliff.	Half/half (11-Oct-24): Thesis was right, Fed merely wanted to get to neutral quickly and then wait and see. Under-estimated initial overshoot in markets discounting cuts in 2025. Would have only been profitable if scaled entry into trade.
Short EURNOK (lower conviction)	19-Jul-24	Market too complacent on Norway inflation risks. The tail risk remains that Norway inflationary pressures facilitate a shift (perceived or real) in Norges Bank FX policy, which would allow some catch up NOK appreciation.	Yes (11-Oct-24): Sell-off ran out of steam and Tactical Outlook turning positive again. Take profit on short.
SOFR Dec 24/25 (SFRZ4Z5) vs SONIA Dec 24/25 (SFIZ4Z5) convergence	14-Jun-24	This is a bet on market needing to discount a less hawkish BoE relative to Fed for 2025 Spread at highs seen in Nov 23 and Mar 24, but UK services upside inflation risk already played out and ONS hospitality surveys show price pressures rolling over	Yes (23-Sep-24): Our SONIA vs SOFR Dec 24/25 convergence trade has worked almost exactly as intended.
Short USDIDR	22-Aug-24 23-May-24	22-Aug-24: USDIDR collapse after LPPL bubble climax, macro set up still valid and favors more IDR strength 23-May-24: Stable growth and inflation => room for foreigner inflow => good for IDR	Yes (23-Sep-24): Almost everything we originally anticipated to drive the USDIDR lower has happened. The LPPL bubble climax marked the tactical peak.
Long USD (DXY or USDU)	03-Sep-24	We see alignment across tactical & cyclical models to go long USD again. LPPL crash climaxes on 1,2,4 hourly while our speculative flow proxies for USD vs G10 (VP Fast Money) also show extremely negative breadth, which is a contrarian indicator.	No (23-Sep-24): Thesis still valid, but trade expression refined to long USDCHF.
Long EURCHF	22-Aug-24 20-Jun-24 15-Feb-24	22-Aug-24: long EURCHF thesis intact: low swiss inflation + fading extreme bullish sentiment on CHF 20-Jun-24: SNB cuts again, inflation/growth still weak => long EURCHF 15-Feb-24: Swiss inflation LEI showing disinflationary pressures, SNB room to cut	No (23-Sep-24): Thesis still valid, but trade expression refined to long USDCHF.
Long Mexico bonds	20-Jun-24	Election in the rear view + inflation under control => long bonds	Yes (01-Sep-24): Both Mexican inflation and growth LEIs are bottoming and turning up, making the outlook less clear cut on yields. Take profits. Instead switch to short USDMXN in light of LPPL bubble climax signal and positive carry on the trade.
USD 2s10s Steepener	09-Jul-24	2s10s 1y forward is currently still inverted and is unlikely to be realized.	Yes (01-Aug-24): STIR markets are pricing 6+ Fed cuts to June 2025 after the July Fed meeting. 2s10s forwards have already un-inverted and spot 2s10s is struggling to maintain steepening momentum. Take profits and roll into short SFRM5 trade.
Long AUDCAD	23-May-24	BoC G10 dovish outlier, Canada economic outlook weak + credit stress high. In Australia, a recovering housing market, still tight labor markets and upside risks to inflation suggest the RBA will be forced to tilt more hawkish again.	Yes (19-Jul-24): CAD futures positioning now extremely short. Our preferred long AUD expression is now short EURAUD.
Long EURUSD	01-May-24	21-Jun-24: Markets chopping a lot. Tactical models turning negative. Economic fundamental thesis remains valid. Stop out below 1.065. 14-Jun-24: Politics vs Fundamentals French political risk likely a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact into election results. 01-May-24: Powell short-circuits VP Correction Signal, best tactical trade is long EURUSD	Yes (19-Jul-24): Euribor vs SOFR STIR spreads are starting to mean-revert from multi-year highs, indicating STIR markets have already priced in a very dovish Fed vs the ECB. This creates headwinds for long EURUSD. Take profits and wait for a better entry. The medium-term eurozone reflation trade does still make macro sense.
Short CNHINR	21-Jan-24	Strong growth LEI => hawkish bias for RBI, short CNHINR	Yes (19-Jul-24): RBI moving towards rate cuts.
Short EURPLN	15-Feb-24	21-Jun-24: Markets chopping a lot. Tactical models flip-flopping. Economic fundamental thesis remains valid. 15-Feb-24: Good economic fundamentals, positive fiscal impulse + auto cycle	Yes (8-Jul-24): Not hugely profitable, trade constantly buffeted by local and global political risks. As EURPLN has fallen again, the tail risks for the trade are now US elections / Russia risks to Poland that could drive a Zloty sell-off. Take profits and move on.
Short CNHKRW & THBKRW (50/50 split)	23-May-24	Korea inflation & growth LEI's improving, in absolute and relative terms vs China & Thailand, KRW major laggard YTD	No (27-Jun-24): Supposed to be a short-term mean-version macro laggard catch up trade, but macro data has not helped shift the narrative and tactical models are bearish the KRW again.
Long US Small caps	17-May-24	Holding above 3y VWAP	No (27-Jun-24): Broke below T3Y VWAP support again. US economic leading indicators show the outlook is more sideways than bonanza.
Canada dovish G10 outlier, long Canada bonds	14-Sep-23	Tactical Aligns, BoC Pause, Growth/Inflation Downside (long 2y bond futures)	Yes (21-Jun-24): 2y yields unable to break lower. Canada building permits surging could slow the pace of BoC cuts. YTD STIR markets already show CORRA discounting more dovish BoC vs other major central banks. FX the best expression now.
Long Brazil bonds	17-Aug-23	Stick with Brazil local currency sovereign debt as the BCB has lots of room to cut. The LPPL bubble in rates we flagged last month has played out.	Half/half (21-Jun-24): BCB hiking regime model now active. Brazil sov bonds did outperform 10y UST or cash in total return terms since inception, but YTD has underperformed cash.
GBP bullish G10 outlier	15-Dec-23	Disinflation consensus creates contrarian long GBP opportunity	Yes (19-Jun-24): BoE easing regime now active. GBP already best G10 performer YTD vs USD. UK already big outlier for positive growth and inflation surprises. With services inflation now set to fall, GBP outperformance unlikely to last. STIR the best expression now.
Short EURSEK	23-May-24	Bottoming leading indicators, a hawkish cut from the Riksbank and a shift in our FX edge models suggests shifting to selling EURSEK rallies from our previous bullish cyclical bias	Yes (14-Jun-24): Big move already, take profits, sell-off was supercharged by euro political risks, VP's trading cyclicality model on EURSEK (link) nearing bottom of trading cycle
Short Sonia vs SOFR Dec 24 futures	21-Jan-24	BoE in hawkish regime while Fed remains in dovish regime 22-Mar-24: double down	No (07-Jun-24): Too early on original entry, but thesis was valid and held on until the UK services inflation upside surprise materialized. However with the ONS price intention survey now rolling over, and with the catalyst out of the way… move on for small loss.
Short USDCLP (bullish Chilean Peso)	17-Apr-24	Cyclical commodity outlook supportive of growth, inflation biasing rates higher	Yes (23-May-24): Copper LPPL bubble climaxes suggested taking profits on longs
Long Chinese/HK equities	11-Jan-24	Breadth Squeeze Buy signals	Yes (17-May-24): FXI hits T3Y VWAP overhead resistance at 29, with extreme Fast Money readings and also given the LPPL breakout at the end of April has already played out
Long industrial commodities	01-Dec-23	RoW de-sync from US (global growth rebound), high financing costs and ESG concerns will limit supply response, trade with long bias	Yes (16-May-24): Multiple intra-day LPPL bubble climaxes e.g. 1,2, 4 hourly on Copper + weak China leading indicators + euphoric headlines were signs to take profits
Long USD Trading Bias	11-Jan-24	FX edge models suggest trading with long cyclical bias	Yes (01-May-24): USD rally tactically stretched, Citi FX PAIN sell + FX edge diffusion rolling over
Long USDTHB	15-Dec-23	THB is macro adjustment mechanism for low yields and the loss of tourism revenues	Yes (01-May-24): USDTHB LPPL Bubble climax trigger sign to take profits
Long oil / energy	11-Jan-24	Commodity contango index suggests higher prices, SPR quietly being refilled, oil rig counts trending lower	Yes (09-Apr-23): VP Reversal SELL signals starting a sign to take profits.
Short SOFR Dec 24 futures	02-Jan-24	6 Fed cuts with S&P close to ATH, not justified by inflation LEIs	Yes (01-Apr-24): Market only pricing 3 cuts, YTD moves in fixed income already discounting more inflation
Long gold	02-Jan-24	Strong seasonality, goldminer + silver catchup to spot gold	Yes (01-Apr-24): Elevated fast money + seasonality at end of Q1 suggested taking profits after rally
Short CHFJPY	15-Feb-24	BoJ hiking regime model trigger, USDJPY above 150 => downside rational	Yes (14-Mar-24): VP Reversal Buy on sign to take profit.
Defensives over cyclicals	01-Dec-23	Godot’s recession in 2023, has been a notable drag on defensives, causing recession risk to be priced out.	No (01-Mar-24): Covid inventory distortion over, US LEI rebound is real
Bonds over equities	01-Dec-23	Bonds over equity: 2023 marks 3 years of bond losses in a row	No (01-Mar-24): Covid inventory distortion over, US LEI rebound is real
Short US semi vs long China tech	01-Dec-23	“Sell Hubris, Buy Humiliation"	No (22-Feb-24): NVDA earnings crushes expectations, invalidates tactical short set up, stop out
Short semiconductors	15-Feb-24	LPPL bubble climaxes on daily, 4 hourly and 1 hourly models.	No (22-Feb-24): NVDA earnings crushes expectations, invalidates tactical short set up, stop out