Trump 2.0: Going full Reagan

  • Lessons from Trump's first term and Reagan's era suggest that a stronger dollar and higher equities are the Trump trades that ultimately have room to run over the next 2+ years.
  • Tax cuts and deregulation are the main areas of agreement between Trump's MAGA agenda and the Republican establishment, whereas trade policy will likely come later (following the sequence of Trump's first term).
  • In his first term, Trump demonstrated a limited tolerance for drawdowns in equity markets, which should help to contain the anticipated damage from his more contentious policies in his second term too.
  • Structurally, there are many parallels between Trump 2.0 and Reagan's first term: tax cuts, deregulation, Grace Commission equivalence to DOGE, “Voluntary Export Restraints” to address trade imbalances. A Reagan-esque policy mix would see the dollar grind higher with the combination of trade-related incentives to invest in the US, still large fiscal deficits (in absolute terms and relative to other countries) and relatively elevated interest rate differentials.
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