Stick or twist - April EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

We continue to like (and are sticking with) a variety of trades first covered in our March and February EM/DM LIW reports.

New Ideas: Long CLP (positive commodity/growth outlook + higher than anticipated rates)

Watching: SARB hawkish bias / long ZAR, FX-hedged JPY yields for signal on JGBs

• UK: Stickier services inflation, housing recovery => BoE limited room to cut
• Canada: Still G10 outlier, BoC should be among most dovish central banks
• Switzerland: Short-term risk-off CHF rally, but cyclical bias for weaker CHF
• Japan: Weaker JPY => more pressure on BoJ to hike, watch FX-hedged JPY yields
• Thailand: Weaker THB thesis remains valid
• South Africa: Inflation LEI picking up, SARB hawkish bias => higher real yields
• Brazil: BCB rate path less clear, equities still best way to play growth upside
• Chile: Cyclical commodity outlook supportive of growth, inflation biasing rates higher is good for CLP