Which trends are your friends - February EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

New Ideas: Long EURCHF & short USDJPY (short CHFJPY), UK services inflation upside, INR vol at multi-decade lows, Riksbank quirks.

Watching: Re-affirm long USDTHB, short CNHINR & short EURPLN.

• UK: Re-affirm short SONIA vs SOFR, buy-the-dip on GBP
• Switzerland: Long EURCHF as tactical trend turns bullish
• Sweden: EURSEK cyclically higher, but Riksbank quirks make timing difficult 
• Japan: USDJPY/CHFJPY downside
• India: RBI FX intervention reasonable, stick with short CNHINR
• Thailand: THB depreciation still macro adjustment mechanism
• Poland: Still strong PLN fundamentals
• Brazil: Stick with bonds as growth outlook improves