Politics vs Fundamentals - VP June 2024 Global Macro Trading Call [video + AI summary]

• New Trade: Bet on less hawkish BoE relative to Fed via SOFR Dec 24/25 (SFRZ4Z5) vs SONIA Dec 24/25 (SFIZ4Z5) convergence
• Take Profit: close short EURSEK trade
• Update: French political risk likely a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact into election results. Brazil political risk likely over-stated as Lula fits into “grab power with the left, govern with the right” framework

Link to Top Global Macro Ideas dashboard.