Our Higher Yields, Higher USD Views Played Out, Now What? - October Global Macro Trading Call [video + AI summary]

• Speakers: Tian Yang (Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Chief Markets Economist)
• Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields are now above 4%, with the market adjusting to diminished recession odds and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. That leaves us focusing on relative value trades outside of the U.S. until after the upcoming election.
• FX: Recent dollar strength has mostly played out, and our FX Edge model points to long GBP/USD as the best expression of a reversal in the USD. We also like long CAD/CHF and short EUR/AUD as positive-carry expressions of relative strength in growth and inflation.
• Equities: We remain in a neutral macro regime, so are maintaining equal-weight exposure to equities. However, Chinese equities are a tradable long opportunity through the end of the year due to the drip of government policies supporting the equity rally.

See our Top Global Macro Ideas dashboard for more details.