China LEI at New Lows, US Growth Slowing, Not Collapsing - September G3 Leading Indicator Watch

Update: Non-Farm Payrolls have been below 150k for 3 months in a row (given revisions) which has caused our “growth scare” checklist to tick up to 4 out of 9. The market will remain on edge as it waits to see if the Fed is behind the curve on growth. As we noted in our September Macro Snapshot, we think the Fed cuts are just in time, leading to a neutral macro regime. 

Summary by Region

US:

• Growth: slowing, but no imminent collapse
• Consumer: bifurcated stress, but in aggregate holding up, leading indicators are recovering
• Labor: slowing, not collapse, but risks are rising
• Manufacturing: ISM a big worry, but election uncertainty is a factor, while delivery times are still rising
• Housing: multi-unit permits collapse, but house price LEI propped up by improving lending standards
• Inflation: not out of the woods, but minimal stagflation risks

China: New lows in growth and inflation LEIs, still in “show me mode”, structural problems continue

Eurozone: Cyclical outlook rolling over, Germany lagging again, services inflation risks still falling