Policy: just in time or too late? - September Macro Snapshot

New Ideas: Long USD, take tactical profits on gold, short USDMXN

• Bonds priced for recession, equities priced for growth…
• ...reality in the middle: VP Macro Regime propped up by policy
• US consumer is bifurcated, but holding up in aggregate
• US labor market is slowing, but still no signs of collapse
• Equities: S&P 500 near VP’s Fair Value, some downside risk
• Equity sector / region selection: Brazil and Oil & Gas
• Fixed Income: front end priced for recession, 10y yield below fair value
• Credit: high yield spreads still complacent
• US dollar: buy (alignment across tactical & cyclical models)
• USDCNH: China macro still terrible, CNH depreciation pressures remain
• Gold: LPPL climax sell => tactically trim, but structural bull intact
• LatAm update: swap long Mexican bond for long MXN, still like Brazilian equities