When the recession becomes obvious - VP Macro Snapshot
- US recession: initial claims catch up; no outliers left
- Unemployment rate rising = recession scare for markets
- Equities: earnings recessions matter now
- Fed cut not the savior for equities
- Fixed income: tactical improving; still bullish cyclical backdrop
- China: domestic headwinds faded; not yet tailwinds
- EM: more room to cut
- FX: when to sell USD
- Credit: US HY still complacent
- Commodities: supercycle intermission ongoing (since May 2022)
- Gold: LPPL bubble ACTIVE
Macro SnapshotCyclicalTactical
