When the recession becomes obvious - VP Macro Snapshot

  • US recession: initial claims catch up; no outliers left
  • Unemployment rate rising = recession scare for markets
  • Equities: earnings recessions matter now
  • Fed cut not the savior for equities
  • Fixed income: tactical improving; still bullish cyclical backdrop
  • China: domestic headwinds faded; not yet tailwinds
  • EM: more room to cut
  • FX: when to sell USD
  • Credit: US HY still complacent
  • Commodities: supercycle intermission ongoing (since May 2022)
  • Gold: LPPL bubble ACTIVE 
Macro SnapshotCyclicalTactical