US labor signal vs noise, Nikkei LPPL & when to buy China equities
- US labor market: signal vs noise
- US continuing claims recessionary (even adjusting for Covid distortion)
- US recession feedback loops remain in play
- Private credit is THE recession play
- Equities: flows back to 2021 peak, stay overweight cash
- Nikkei LPPL bubble exhausting
- Fixed income: 1969-70 roadmap playing out; delayed yield plunge
- China: playing for the shift from very bad to less bad
- China: which tactical indicators to use to time the buy
- EM: more room to cut, and more bond upside to come
- FX: when to sell USD
- Commodities: supercycle intermission ongoing + gold LPPL bubble over
Macro SnapshotTacticalCyclical
