Bear market rally: nearer the end than the beginning - VP Macro Snapshot

> VP’s Recession Signal did NOT trigger this month, underlying risks rose again
> Inflows power bear market rally, nearer the end of the move than the beginning
> Equity sector signals: energy services and banks outperforming
> On 6m+ outlook, cyclical LEIs still point to risk-off
> US inflation LEIs rolling over more firmly
> Eurozone inflation peak not imminent
> Fixed income: stay overweight duration
> China: LPPL crash played out, no LEI upturn yet
> Commodities: still in the “supercycle intermission”
> FX: USD LPPL bubble ends, too many mixed signals to bet on USD sell-off
> EM: inflation peak brings end to hiking cycles
> Credit: avoid complacent HY, neutral on IG
Macro Snapshot