What We Got Right and Wrong (4Q25)

RIGHT: Staying anchored to the Macro Risk Indicator and the jobless-recovery framework proved correct, allowing us to remain risk-on through Q4 despite labor and housing concerns. EM over DM (especially Brazil), a tactical rebound in yields, selective FX cross trades, and a constructive commodities bias all broadly played out. 

WRONG: We didn't appreciate the implications of the Takaichi election result in Japan for the JPY and JGBs, so exited our long CADJPY too early.

Link to Quarterly Summary