What We Got Right and Wrong (3Q25)

RIGHT: Being data dependent and anchored to the models paid off: while we highlighted the downside risks worth monitoring (e.g., inventory cycle, labor market weakness), the Macro Risk Indicator shifted from neutral to risk-on as the Q3 US “growth scare” played out without turning recessionary.

WRONG: Most of our misses were about the trade expression/timing rather than the rationale: UK growth stagnated as expected, but the lingering inflation pressure means a SONIA curve trade would have been more suitable; our domestic Canada story was right, but price action was overwhelmed by global factors; and KRW trades demanded quicker narrative shifts.

Link to Quarterly Dashboard