What We Got Right and Wrong (2Q25)

RIGHT: Higher volatility around tariffs, a pivot to a US dollar downtrend, and continued housing weakness were the main macro calls we got right in Q2. Among asset classes, our bullish calls for equities in China, India, and Brazil played out, and we've been right in our calls for US rates biased lower and most FX ideas throughout Q2.   

WRONG: The volatility around Liberation Day threw off our timing on the exhaustion of the gold rally and our bullish stance on industrial metals equities. The lack of major repatriation flows meant our expectation for a yen rally was short lived, while global factors outweighed domestic ones in our call for the JGB curve to flatten. 

Link to Quarterly Dashboard