What We Got Right and What We Got Wrong (2Q24) | Research

Speakers: Tian Yang (Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Chief Markets Economist)
This quarter, we were right on most of the US macro calls. We acknowledged recession risks at the start but quickly pivoted to the fiscal narrative and correctly anticipated inflation would run its course by Q2. U.S. growth has been moderate—neither surging nor collapsing—which has supported a balanced asset allocation.
We've had high hit rates on FX, e.g. long Euro/USD after Powell signaled the Fed was done hiking in May. Other Dollar trades didn't work out and were a lesson in the importance of respecting model shifts.
On the equity front, some of our calls played out (long U.S. homebuilders and long South Africa) but others have been flat, notably US energy and Brazilian equities. Despite being flat earlier this year, we still see long-term potential in these markets.