VP March 2024 Big Picture Discussion

Highlights from this month's Big Picture discussion:

  • The ongoing rebound in global leading growth inputs paired with the US fiscal outlook support our structural preference for commodities and real assets.
  • The covid-distorted inventory cycle is normalizing, shown by the closing of the ISM customer vs manufacturer inventory gap. This is a big positive development that we have been waiting for since 3Q23, and suggests we can have a classic manufacturing recovery again.
  • The mid-1990's disinflationary boom scenario was led by surging private investment, and while private investment has room to rise today, labor market and fiscal dynamics suggest greater inflation risk now vs the 90s.
Market DiscussionBig PictureCyclicalStructuralUSEMLatAmInventoryFiscalInflationGrowth