US resilient, China stalling, Eurozone edging higher - Nov. G3 Leading Indicator Watch

The balance of data available during the shutdown confirms a still resilient US economy. Our cyclical roadmap remains that the Fed is easing into a backdrop of elevated nominal GDP growth.

Summary by Region:

• US: We continue to see parallels with 2002–03, when “jobless” growth and rising productivity occurred against a backdrop of elevated excess liquidity and Fed easing.
• China: Growth leading indicators and liquidity are losing momentum. More stimulus is needed for the housing/consumer sectors.
• Eurozone: We struggle to get too excited about the growth leading indicator recovery given structural problems. We still like short EURUSD.