US labor market: what's different this time?
- The dog that didn't bark: US jobless claims vs fiscal deficits
- Handicapping the risks between moderate labor deterioration and the benefits of a profit recovery
- Cyclical wage growth to stabilize around 4-4.5%
- Structural changes in job openings & participation rates => risks NAIRU under-estimated similar to the late 1960s
- Negative QCEW data revisions: a hollow victory rather than the Wile E. Coyote moment
Portfolio WatchUSLaborClaimsFiscalWagesCyclical
