The Keys to the White House 2024

  • We re-visit an empirical US election framework (Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Whitehouse) as a complementary piece to polling and betting market data for the 2024 US elections.
  • Lichtman's study of historical elections suggests one should de-personalize the candidates and view elections as “referendums on the past”, with voters deciding on “continuation” or “change”.
  • Lichtman's 13-point checklist has been out-of-sample since 1984, and helped to flag Trump's win in 2016. Today, it suggests the 2024 election is on a knife's edge with a small edge to the Republicans. currently has the Democrats at a 54% chance of winning.
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