Stocks vs Bonds: Revisited - May Macro Snapshot
New Ideas: Powell tries to short-circuit VP Correction Signal - best tactical trade is long EURUSD, Chinese equity upside breakout, LEI heatmaps
- Stocks vs Bonds: Structural (2/3y+) outlook favors equity
- Stock vs Bonds: Cyclical (6-12m) outlook neutral
- Stock vs Bonds: Tactically Powell tries to short circuit VP Correction Signal
- US growth: benign but not bonanza, private sector recovery
- US inflation: mini scare, demand backdrop limits stagflation risk
- US labor market: micro business anomalies remain
- US fiscal impulse marginally negative, watching April tax receipts
- China: PBOC easing, weaker CNH, equity upside breakout
- FX: USD rally looking tactically stretched, EUR likely beneficiary
- Commodities: gold, energy, industrial metals are structural winners
Macro SnapshotTacticalCyclicalStructuralUSFiscalInflationGrowthEquitiesFixed IncomeCommodities