Stocks vs Bonds: Revisited - May Macro Snapshot

New Ideas: Powell tries to short-circuit VP Correction Signal - best tactical trade is long EURUSD, Chinese equity upside breakout, LEI heatmaps

• Stocks vs Bonds: Structural (2/3y+) outlook favors equity
• Stock vs Bonds: Cyclical (6-12m) outlook neutral
• Stock vs Bonds: Tactically Powell tries to short circuit VP Correction Signal
• US growth: benign but not bonanza, private sector recovery
• US inflation: mini scare, demand backdrop limits stagflation risk
• US labor market: micro business anomalies remain
• US fiscal impulse marginally negative, watching April tax receipts
• China: PBOC easing, weaker CNH, equity upside breakout
• FX: USD rally looking tactically stretched, EUR likely beneficiary
• Commodities: gold, energy, industrial metals are structural winners