Reduced Left and Right Tails - July Macro Snapshot

New Ideas: Reduced left tail: inflation not high enough for hikes, Reduced left tail: micro business risks likely peaked, Reduced right tail: housing headwinds persist, US election: swing state economic conditions favor democrats

• Reduced left tails: Fiscal + consumer, inflation not high enough for hikes, manufacturing recovery, credit recession happened + effective mortgage rate at 3.8%, micro business risks likely peaked
• Reduced right tails: housing headwinds persist, growth LEI sideways + GDPNow higher lows
• US election: swing state economic conditions favor democrats
• Equities: earnings outlook benign, liquidity moderate headwind
• US Dollar: sideways, tactical and cyclical not aligned
• Commodities: cyclical/structural winners, tactical outlook improving