Policy divergence trade ideas - January EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

New Ideas: Short SONIA vs SOFR DEC 24 (BOE policy regime more hawkish than Fed), short CNHINR (LEI divergence + carry).

Watching: GBP resilience, USDJPY 4 hourly LPPL bubbles, AUD Flatteners, AUDNZD, Banxico room to cut.

• UK: Sonia vs SOFR, buy-the-dip on GBP
• Canada: Bond rally tactically stretched, trim exposure; cyclical growth/inflation downside remains
• Japan: BoJ still slow rolling policy normalization
• Australia: Still feeling lucky (soft landing => RBA hawkish)
• India: Strong growth LEI => hawkish bias for RBI, short CNHINR
• Mexico: Room to cut => bullish bonds
• Malaysia: Fuel exporter + strong FDI => equity tailwinds
• Indonesia: Unwarranted outflows and cheap valuations