Outliers - May EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

This month we have added some visuals to the appendices (pages 11-12) to help readers quickly identify outliers within global equities, fixed income and FX.

New Ideas: Long AUDCAD, long KRW (vs CNH and THB, 50/50 split), long IDR

Watching/Update: Long GBP, short EURSEK, long Brazil equities, AUD flatteners, take profit on CLP

  • UK: Stickier service inflation thesis playing out, retain long GBP bias
  • Sweden: Flip from bullish EURSEK bias to bearish bias
  • Canada: Still G10 outlier, long AUDCAD the play
  • Australia: Housing rebound + upside inflation risks => flatteners & long AUDCAD
  • Chile: Copper LPPL bubble climaxes suggest taking some profit on CLP
  • Brazil: Equities still seeing outflows, fundamentals attractive
  • Indonesia: Stable growth and inflation => room for foreigner inflow => good for IDR
  • South Korea: Growth and inflation bottoming + mean-reversion set-up in KRW
Leading Indicator WatchCyclicalTacticalEMDMUKSwedenCanadaAustraliaChileBrazilIndonesiaSouth Koreacurrencynorameuapaclac

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