Optimism is consensus, but that’s ok for now - Jan. G3 Leading Indicator Watch Discussion [video + AI summary] | Research

Speakers: Tian Yang (Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Macro Strategist)
The macro backdrop remains firmly risk-on, with growth holding up, inflation risks skewed lower than consensus, supportive policy, and healthy liquidity conditions.
In the US, muted labor markets will cap wage pressure and allow the Fed to remain dovish while investment, capex, and fiscal spending keep activity and profits supported.
Regionally, China activity remains sideways with selective upside in tech but limited case for sustained RMB strength, while Europe shows improving leading indicators amid optimism around fiscal, keeping euro shorts versus APAC the cleanest FX expression.
The attached AI summary provides the key takeaways that can be read in less than 5 minutes.