Opening the Box on Schrodinger's Recession - October Macro Snapshot

Update: VP Macro Regime still propped up by synchronized policy easing. Our US growth LEI indicates an economy that is slowing and set to grow at slightly below trend (but still positive). We analyze what aspects of the US economy are still recessionary vs not recessionary. 

  • VP Macro Regime still propped up by synchronized policy easing
  • High frequency US growth data is still holding up
  • Opening the box on Schrodinger’s recession
  • What IS still recessionary?
  • What’s been different this time?
  • Equities: S&P 500 near fair value, focus on sector tilts
  • Equity sector / region selection: Oil & Gas, Brazil, S. Africa
  • Fixed income: nominal neutral rate probably around 4%
  • Gold: near fair value, structural bull case intact
  • Commodity demand update: wait for it…
  • FX: long USDCHF our preferred long dollar expression
Macro SnapshotUSRecessionLaborConsumerEquitiesFixed IncomeGoldUSDCommodityEquity SectorMacro RegimeEquity RegionnoramcurrencyDM

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