Keep Rolling on Policy Divergence Trades - July EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

New Ideas: Short EURAUD (replace/take profits on long AUDCAD & long EURUSD)

Update: Almost time for short GBP (prefer SONIA for now). EURNOK put-spreads worth a shot. Take profits on short CNHINR.

  • UK: ONS survey confirms services inflation to keep rolling over 
  • Australia: Swap long AUDCAD for short EURAUD
  • Canada: Growth downside risks largely priced in, waiting for better entry points
  • Norway: Inflation complacency => look for contrarian short EURNOK via put-spreads
  • South Africa: Political unity + positive growth & inflation LEIs => reflation, equity allocation opportunity 
  • Mexico: Banxico in dovish regime, early innings of long bond trade
  • Brazil: Upcoming fiscal review key for near term equity outlook
  • India: RBI dovish tilt, inflation outlook stable, take profits on short CNHINR
Leading Indicator WatchCyclicalUKAustraliaCanadaNorwaySouth AfricaMexicoBrazilIndiaEMDMFXFixed IncomeEquities