Keep Rolling on Policy Divergence Trades - July EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch
New Ideas: Short EURAUD (replace/take profits on long AUDCAD & long EURUSD)
Update: Almost time for short GBP (prefer SONIA for now). EURNOK put-spreads worth a shot. Take profits on short CNHINR.
- UK: ONS survey confirms services inflation to keep rolling over
- Australia: Swap long AUDCAD for short EURAUD
- Canada: Growth downside risks largely priced in, waiting for better entry points
- Norway: Inflation complacency => look for contrarian short EURNOK via put-spreads
- South Africa: Political unity + positive growth & inflation LEIs => reflation, equity allocation opportunity
- Mexico: Banxico in dovish regime, early innings of long bond trade
- Brazil: Upcoming fiscal review key for near term equity outlook
- India: RBI dovish tilt, inflation outlook stable, take profits on short CNHINR
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