Inflation: "mini scare" rather than "biggest tail risk" - April Macro Snapshot

New ideas: inflation more “mini scare” than biggest tail risk to markets, S&P 500 fair value is rich but not at nosebleed levels

• Inflation more “mini scare” than “biggest tail risk”
• YTD moves in fixed income already discounting more inflation
• Fiscal fading is our main tail risk… but not yet, watch April tax receipts
• US labor market slowing, but micro-business labor hoarding remains
• S&P 500 fair value: rich, but not at nosebleed levels
• Liquidity is a moderate headwind
• Inventory cycle normalization continues
• Homebuilders: tactically trim, but structural bull thesis remains
• Brazil equities: tactical + cyclical + structural alignment = BUY
• Gold: take profits
• FX: cyclical outlook still bullish USD