Fiscal: Sisyphus or Hercules - February Macro Snapshot

Like Sisyphus rolling the boulder up the hill, the US economy remains vulnerable to any drop off in fiscal spending.

New Ideas: Issues with US tax receipts and job openings, S&P implied correlations extremely low, SOFR put-flies, USDCNH

Watching: FI Allocations in TIPS, MBS. Equity Allocations in LatAm (Mexico, Brazil), Goldminers, Energy, Materials, Staples

• Fiscal: more Sisyphus than Hercules
• Tax receipts on production diverge vs GDP
• Job opening data worse than headline, distorted by labor hoarding…
• Warns of downside to EPS forecasts…
• Even non-tech forecast EPS remains vulnerable
• Pricing power weaker, removing another support for margins
• Inflation leading indicators are bottoming
• Moderate liquidity headwinds