Echoes of 2016, 2003 and 1999: Signposts to watch - Jan. Macro Snapshot [video + AI summary]
- Speakers: Tian Yang (Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Macro Strategist)
- Our Macro Risk Indicator has shifted into “max-risk on”. The most relevant roadmaps are a mix of a 2016-style cyclical rebound, a 2003-style jobless recovery, and a 1999-style tech-driven equity melt-up.
- With sound macro fundamentals and high US large-cap valuations, we are focusing on EM, value, energy, and financials. Meanwhile, US fixed income looks range-bound with the most interesting mispricing in the far-forward front-end curve rather than in 10-year yields.
- The attached AI summary provides the key takeaways that can be read in less than 5 minutes.
DiscussionsAsset AllocationGlobal MacroUSnoramdmequity regionfixed incomecurrencycommodity
