Echoes of 2016, 2003 and 1999: Signposts to watch - Jan. Macro Snapshot

Since 1990, our Macro Risk Indicator has only been as bullish as today on five previous occasions. While no single historical period is a perfect match, there are three periods that offer lessons for investors today: 2016, 2003 and 1999.

The unfolding situation in Venezuela is geopolitical history rhyming again: the United States re-asserting strategic control over the Western Hemisphere. This was Pillar #1 in our recent thematic report, The Primacy of Sovereignty.

Please find a recap of our multi-asset 2026 Themes here.

Section Summary:

• Cyclical Asset Allocation: Macro Risk Indicator as “risk-on” as ’16, ’03, and ’99
• Macro Analog #1: 2016 signposts: Manufacturing recovery after rolling recession
• Macro Analog #2: 2003 signposts: “Jobless” recovery with rising productivity
• Macro Analog #3: 1999 signposts: High valuations and speculative mania with generational IPO
• Equity: Consensus optimism vs sound macro => energy/financial/tech barbell, EM, value
• Fixed Income: US 10y fair value range of 3.75% - 4%, watch the SOFR curve
• FX: More nuanced outlook for USD, but APAC vs EUR remains key divergence
• Commodities: Commodity outlook still strong, but parabolic metals rally due for pause