"A" time to buy EM, not "the" time + DM/EM outliers - VP 2024 Themes (Part 3, December EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch)

This is part 3 of our 2024 Themes. Part 1, 3 Key (Cyclical) Questions, was posted on December 1st. Part 2, Betting on a de-sync, was posted on December 8th. 

• UK: disinflation consensus creates contrarian long GBP opportunity.
• Australia: soft landing, RBA hawkish outlier, flatteners are positive carry.
• Japan: growth bottoming, structural equity story intact, impossible trinity unresolved, FX - hedging explains JPY squeeze.
• Eurozone periphery: periphery corporate loans contracting, puts in periphery equities as left tail hedges.
• Brazil: mid-journey on disinflation, still like the currency and bonds.
• Thailand: long equities, long USDTHB ("mini Japan trade").
• Chile: political stabilization allows catch up to other LatAm.
• South Africa: stagflation, but contrarian long in ZAR and select equities.