A better way to own duration - November Macro Snapshot

  • Agency MBS: duration with extra margin of safety
  • Homebuilders: at key support levels, still capital scarce
  • US: Where we are tracking vs 1969-70 roadmap. Labor hoarding remains headwind to profits
  • Eurozone: still recessionary, still disinflationary
  • China: money market stress
  • Fixed Income: dislocation = opportunity
  • Equities: top down bearish, bottom-up contrarian dislocations
  • Liquidity / Vol regime: rising “background risks”
  • Commodities: political risks add to supply constraints
  • FX: USD cyclically biased higher
Macro SnapshotTacticalCyclicalStructuralEquity SectorMBS