1994 analog: where the shoe fits and where it doesn't - March G3 Leading Indicator Watch

New ideas: Today’s labor and fiscal context differ from 1994’s disinflationary boom scenario. RMB depreciation pressures remain, watching Panda bond issuance and Hong Kong imports for clues on timing. We like European chemicals to get exposure to Eurozone recovery (less crowded, more aligned to capital cycle).

• US: growth LEI strength now confirmed by inventory cycle normalization, inflation LEI still bottoming. 
• US: 1994 analog - today’s labor / fiscal doesn’t match. Workers care about real income LEVELS, drives uptick in price and compensation plans. Micro-businesses creating upside risk to wages.
• China: L-shaped recovery, watching PMI delivery times. Panda bonds and imports from HK offer clues on CNH.
• Eurozone: leading data continues to recover. Upside for euro chemicals industry (less crowded + capital scarce). Disinflation trend, but services inflation risks remain.