US Growth: Still resilient growth LEI, as GDPNow and services recover

Our US growth leading indicator has been resilient throughout this year, holding steady at around +2% annualized growth. This has been a significant divergence with widely-followed leading indicators such as the Conference Board leading indicator.

Service sector surveys are recovering. Regional Fed surveys show that current services activity is now near the top of the post-2022 range while expectations for future services activity is also improving.

The private sector components of GDPNow (i.e., consumption and investment) also remain resilient, with the latest reading ticking up to 2% annualized growth rate and a 3-month moving average of 1.5%.

Small business delinquencies have remained muted so far, while the NFIB small business hiring intentions have stopped deteriorating.