A. The Most Important Thing

➊ Latest Views

→ Top Global Macro Ideas Dashboard↗: Our latest, highest-conviction macro trade ideas by asset class.

→ Global Macro Trading Discussion↗: Video and summary of our lead analysts discussing global macro trade ideas.

→ Review Previously Triggered Models↗: Search is filtered on Triggered Models and User Preferences. Sorted in reverse-chronological order by date of trigger.

➋ Review Outliers in the Multi Asset Tactical App↗

Simpler is better. VP’s Tactical Outlook Score synthesizes all of VP’s tactical indicators into a forecast of 1-month forward returns. On a relative basis, the score is used to rank assets to draw focus to the most extreme outliers. On an absolute basis, a model "trigger" can be considered a buy or sell signal.

➌ Set Up Alerting Preferences↗

Customize delivery frequency (daily/weekly) and select the watchlists, asset classes, regions, and models for which you would like to receive alerts

B. Key Thought Leadership / Thematic Reports

Explore some key white papers we selected for your investment profile.

Leading Indicators 4.0↗

We added causal discovery processes to better understand which leading inputs should be given more weight at different points in time for a more accurate measure that can be interpreted as a 6-month forecast for the target series. This is analogous to epigenetic changes, where the environment can affect which genes are being expressed or not.

Understanding VP Central Bank Regime Models↗

Our central bank policy regime models use a combination of economic and market inputs to classify if a particular central bank is in an “easing” or “hiking” regime. We then look for where market pricing is most divergent with this macro outlook to generate trade ideas.

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VP's Tactical Outlook 3.0↗

Simpler is better. VP’s Tactical Outlook Score synthesizes all of VP’s tactical indicators into a forecast of 1-month forward returns. The model offers discretionary investors a tactical market timing input that works on a time horizon of weeks to months (i.e. not day-trading).

C. Case Studies

Explore how we used our proprietary models and knowledge of market history to flag big ideas.